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« Ausiello Report
My Emmy Predictions!
Yes, this year's Emmy nominations make about as much sense as Desperate Housewives' Betty Applegate mystery. Chris Meloni instead of Hugh Laurie? Allison Janney instead of Edie Falco? Stockard Channing instead of Lauren Graham? Alfre Woodard instead of... anyone? But a funny thing happened after I worked through my anger, frustration and general sense of hopelessness: I took another look at the list and discovered, much to my surprise, that members of the blue-ribbon panel weren't completely stoned when they made their selections. Lost amid all the head-scratchers are some truly worthy nominees. In other words, this year's race is salvageable — provided, of course, that the right people win. Who are these "right people" I speak of? They're listed below, followed by my predictions for who will take home the gold on Aug. 27. Feel free to crib the info for your office pool. Not to boast, but history has proven that I'm usually spot-on about this stuff.
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
Grey's Anatomy; House; The Sopranos; 24; The West Wing
Who should win: Grey's. No drama was more consistently entertaining. (OK, Battlestar Galactica was better, but those frakked-up Emmy voters didn't even… calm down, Michael. Breathe. You worked through this already, remember?)
Who will win: Grey's will take it, provided West Wing doesn't pull a late-term upset. And I'm talking "upset" in the true sense of the word.
OUSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Christopher Meloni, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit; Denis Leary, Rescue Me; Peter Krause, Six Feet Under; Kiefer Sutherland, 24; Martin Sheen, The West Wing
Who should win: Leary. If for no other reason than to hear his [bleepin'] acceptance speech.
Who will win: Leary. If he submits the episode in which his TV son dies — and he will — he can't be beat. SPOILER ALERT: Sheen has never won for WW; so this would be Emmy's last chance to hail the chief.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer; Geena Davis, Commander in Chief; Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit; Frances Conroy, Six Feet Under; Allison Janney, The West Wing
Who should win: Sedgwick. All right, I really want Mariska to win, but I'd be dishonest if I didn't say Kyra deserves it more. Eh, honesty is overrated — go, Mariska!
Who will win: Conroy. Six Feet really put her through the emotional wringer in its final season, and if Emmy voters love anything, it's good grief.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
William Shatner, Boston Legal; Oliver Platt, Huff; Michael Imperioli, The Sopranos; Gregory Itzin, 24; Alan Alda, The West Wing
Who should win: Itzin. As President Logan, Itzin went from bumbling idiot to bumbling baddie — all in the same day!
Who will win: Alda. If Emmy voters give WW only one parting gift, my bet is this will be it. Just a hunch.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Candice Bergen, Boston Legal; Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy; Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy; Blythe Danner, Huff; Jean Smart, 24
Who should win: Wilson. You think I'm going to tell Bailey otherwise?
Who will win: Smart. Emmy voters are suckers for a good old-fashioned comeback story, and Smart staged a glorious one as 24's nut-job-turned-heroine of a first lady.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Arrested Development; Curb Your Enthusiasm; The Office; Scrubs; Two and a Half Men
Who should win: Scrubs. Those kooks at Sacred Heart hit an all-new, gloriously loopy creative high last season. A win here could make me forgive Emmy for Grahamgate. The operative word there being "could."
Who will win: Scrubs. Call me kooky, but I really think this is the show's year. I said call me kooky, not that.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm; Kevin James, The King of Queens; Tony Shalhoub, Monk; Steve Carell, The Office; Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men
Who should win: Carell. I'd pay money to see Sheen dis Denise at the dais, but even a fair-weather Office fan like myself can't deny that Carell has done Ricky Gervais proud.
Who will win: Carell. Unless, of course, Kevin James... I'm kidding. (I better be kidding.)
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback; Jane Kaczmarek, Malcolm in the Middle; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, The New Adventures of Old Christine; Stockard Channing, Out of Practice; Debra Messing, Will & Grace
Who should win: Kudrow. Her Comeback flopped, but Kudrow was an underrated hoot as D-list disaster Valerie Cherish. Anyone else winning in this category? I don't need to see that.
Who will win: Elaine, er, Louis-Dreyfus. I'm betting Emmy will want to applaud her for single-handedly breaking the Seinfeld curse.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will Arnett, Arrested Development; Jeremy Piven, Entourage; Bryan Cranston, Malcolm in the Middle; Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men; Sean Hayes, Will & Grace
Who should win: Donald Faison, er, I mean Jeremy Piven. (Behave, Michael!) How could you not love such a huggable jackass? (I'm referring to Ari, not me.)
Who will win: Piven. Emmy needs to atone for not giving the statue to him last year.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Cheryl Hines, Curb Your Enthusiasm; Alfre Woodard, Desperate Housewives; Jaime Pressly, My Name Is Earl; Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds; Megan Mullally, Will & Grace
Who should win: Pressly. Who knew? Not me.
Who will win: Pressly. The safest bet of the race. No one else comes close.
OUTSTANDING REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
The Amazing Race; American Idol; Dancing with the Stars; Project Runway; Survivor
Who should win: Project Runway. All the pleasure of a reality show with none of the guilt.
Who will win: The Amazing Race. Sure, the family edition was a fiasco, but CBS will likely submit episodes from the traditional spring cycle, thus ensuring the show its fourth consecutive victory — and another migraine for Mark Burnett.
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Aug 24, 2006 1:53 PM
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It's interesting that you have different opinions on who/what will win at the Emmy's. When I say different opinions, I mean different from some of the people that are making their own predictions over in the member blog section. Just an observation.
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Aug 24, 2006 3:46 PM
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For the most part I hope you're right. Especially about Denis Leary, Scrubs and Jaimie Pressley. But with Kristen Bell not in the running, as well as Donald Faison, Zach Braff, Hugh Laurie, or anything from Lost, I may not watch. Unless '24' could pull off an upset for best drama. Then I would want to be there. We'll see.
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Aug 24, 2006 4:23 PM
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My only point of contention is that I think Michael should have chosen Jean Smart as teh "Should Win" actress. She should have been up for best actress, not just supporting.
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Aug 24, 2006 6:01 PM
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How did Mary-Louise Parker not even get nominated? She won the Golden Globe, beating the Desperate Housewives, and would have been in the no-competition comedy category. Insanity I tell you.
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Aug 24, 2006 7:07 PM
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*nothing to see here
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Aug 24, 2006 7:47 PM
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if it weren't for the simple fact that Conan O'Brien is hosting, i would only be watching the last ten minutes of the emmys to see if Scrubs wins best comedy.
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Aug 24, 2006 9:40 PM
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At last-you finally came to your senses about Mariska deserving (yes-for fault and 911 alone!)the Emmy. As for
Frances Conroy-nice lady, but I can't afford Showtime or HBO, so I don't vote for Cable shows. You're still wrong about Actor-if Martin Sheen for WW doesn't get it-it should be for Christopher Meloni-again for Fault!
As for those who aren't interested because Lost and DH
and stuff like that isn't nominated-at least watch for the tributes to Dick Clark and Aaron Spelling-there wouldn't be a Lost or DH or MTV or VH1 with out the master of the drama or the worlds oldest teenager!
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Aug 25, 2006 12:57 AM
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Some good predictions. While I would love for "The Office" to win the Emmy, "Scrubs" is long overdue for one.
And there is no way the voters are going to vote for AI or DWTS over "The Amazing Race." TAR's biggest competition is definitely "Project: Runway" and (to a lesser degree) "Survivor," but really will they vote for a bunch of wannabe fashion desginers over an around-the-world (or even cross-country) adventure/thrill ride? 
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Aug 25, 2006 2:27 AM
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24 for best drama (Grey is not groundbreaking tv, it is ER if produced by Archie Comics). Office for best comedy... The true heir to Must See TV.
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Aug 25, 2006 5:12 AM
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I want to say that I am getting really sick of the Alfre Woodward bashing! Really sick of it. She was not given a good story or much airtime but she managed to turn out an outstanding performance in spite of all that. As matter of fact it was mainly Alfre Woodward's performance that kept me watching this season because overall I was disappointed in my once favorite show. Had it not been for Woodward I probably would have stopped watching early on in the season. I think it is sour grapes because of the fact that the other housewives, who did get better stories and certainly a significantly larger amount of airtime, did not get nominated. Obviously the Emmy panel was impressed with Alfre Woodward's performance and felt she deserved to be nominated. I am kind of sick of the whole Emmy bashing period. Everybody has their favorites and everybody wants their fave show or fave performer to get nominated some of them didn't so get over it! There have numerous examples over the years of good performers and shows that did not get nominated. It's just the name of the game. I was always amazed that Homicide Life on the Street never got a best show nom or how long Andre Braugher of Homicide was overlooked before he finally triumphed with a win. I think there were other actors of Homicide too who were worth of nominations but year after year they were overlooked. Kudos to André for his nomination for Thief by the way! I think Alfre Woodward is an outstanding actress and very deserving of her nomination. At least there was a panel this year to actually watch tapes of the performances. I’ve long suspected certain shows were nominated just because "everybody" thought they should be or because certain actors perhaps are popular with their fellow actors and that the awards were basically a popularity contest. Then too how do you judge a television show that airs approximately 22 episodes a year. Unlike the Oscars where a movie is judged and one performance per actor the primetime Emmys are judged perhaps on one submitted tape.In the Daytime Emmys shows that air 52 weeks a year are judged on 2 tapes I believe. Actors who perform 3-5 days a week are judged on two tapes. What would the best system be to judge fairly? I don’t know but the bottom line is awards come down to who likes what and who likes who(whom?). We all have different tastes one man’s meat is another man’s poison. The show you absolutely love I may hate and vice versa. Watch the awards don’t watch the awards just stop griping about them! 
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Aug 25, 2006 9:19 AM
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So if you don't agree with the nominations, you're supposed to just sit back and not comment? Makes for a very boring interactive online experience if you ask me.
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Aug 25, 2006 11:39 AM
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24 for best drama, this is the best show on TV --EVER-- and Kiefer Sutherland for best actor.
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Aug 25, 2006 12:48 PM
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I'd have to agree with the drama predictions, however...
The state of comedy shows on TV must be in really sad shape when a show as dull as Scrubs is considered a frontrunner. I tried watching it on several (at least 4 or 5) occasions over the time it's been on the air but it's extrememly dull and laughless.
I don't understand how Julia Louis-Dreyfus show stayed on the air. It makes the always dull Scurbs look like Friends or Fraiser at their best in comparison. Her acting ability is only slighty better then Paris Hilton's. If this show had been moved to the same time slot Courting Alex was put in to die this show would have nosed dived in the ratings and died too.
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Aug 25, 2006 1:40 PM
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I really think that this is the year that 24 will take Best Drama (As Ausiello pointed out, it was their strongest season yet) and Kiefer Best Actor (I love Denis Leary, but RM is too new), and I think that Scrubs winning Best Comedy is a pipe dream (Prove me wrong, Emmy voters, and I will scream in delight!). But other than that, I think these predictions are pretty sound. Can't wait to watch!
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Aug 25, 2006 1:56 PM
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