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Jeff Probst Breaks Down Survivor's Final Four
Amanda Kimmel, Cirie Field, Natalie Bolton and Parvati Shallow by Monty Brinton/CBS
Survivor: Micronesia has been full of shockers (from Jonny Fairplay quitting to stupid,stupid Ozzy!), making for some crazy-fun Tribal Councils. So we were very anxious to hear definitive Survivor expert Jeff Probst's thoughts on the final four castaways as we approach the May 11 season finale (8 pm/ET, CBS). We caught up with him to see who he thinks will take the prize. — Megan Walsh-Boyle
Parvati
"Parvati's strength is also her weakness — she's made moves and alienated people. That's the only way you're going to get to the end in this game and she did it. And so she's got a lot of damage control to do. Bringing Natalie and Alexis over to the alliance is a move that could bite her in the ass, because Amanda and Cirie could realize, "we’ve got to get rid of this girl — she’s getting too many people on her side."
Amanda
"I’m really curious about the showdown between Parvati and Amanda that has to be coming at some point. What’s working against [her] is that people might want to go against Natalie before Amanda in the final. Amanda's likable, she has played hard and you've got to assume she's got Ozzy's vote — one vote in that final jury…that can be the difference."
Natalie
"The problem Natalie is going to have is that Cirie, Parvati and Amanda seem to be fairly tight. Maybe Natalie’s move should be to look at what happened with Ozzy and see if there’s any way to get Amanda on her side. The best thing going for Natalie is that Parvati and Cirie are doing all the damage and they are going to take all the hits at final Tribal Council. She hasn't alienated that many people."
Cirie
"She's gotten a little cocky this season — she has told a couple of people, 'I know what time it is.' But one of Cirie's strengths is just sitting there, letting everybody know that she can't win a damn challenge to save her life. She's just laughing and trying to make things fun, but look at what she's doing — she has made a lot of moves this season."
And the Winner Is….
"I'd say Cirie's a favorite to win, but I'd put Amanda in there as a favorite — that's who I like. The people that have the most work to do are Natalie and Parvati, for different reasons."
Comparing This Season to Others
"I try to be as honest as possible. Fiji was not a great season. I would love to erase that one. China was an excellent season, and Fans vs. Favorites I think was even better because there are just so many dynamics. It seems pretty clear having played the game once does give you an advantage. If we had this kind of cast every season, we'd never go off the air."
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May 9, 2008 11:33 AM
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If we had this kind of cast every season, we'd never go off the air.
I totally agree - - this has been the best and most interesting season in a long time.
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May 9, 2008 12:37 PM
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I agree with his conclusion that either Cirie or Amanda would walk away with the prize if either were set again Nat and Parv, but the trick will be both of them getting into F3. If they both manage that, then I think we'll have a nice suspenseful finale because it could easily go either way although with the jury made up as it is, I think it would go to Amanda.
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May 9, 2008 1:27 PM
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Well up until last night I would have never said that Cirie deserved to win, but after the master manipulation that she did to Eric - that girl deserves to win. I don't think that she will but she has certainly earned the right to it!
Ths HAS been the best season of Survivor EVER and I have seen every episode of every season!
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May 9, 2008 2:19 PM
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Absolutely Cirie is in the running as one who "deserves" to win - she was part of every single dirty ouster, but managed to do it without getting any blood on her hands. Look at the hit Parv took for axing Ozzy - but no one batted an eyelid at Cirie. She has played BEAUTIFULLY this entire game ...
That being said, I'm 110% behind Amanda. Her Tribal move last week (which I have watched over & over) made sticking with this show through dreadful seasons like Thailand & Fiji totally worth it all. AND ... I want her to redeem herself for her dreadful showing at the China Final Tribal Council - she should've won that game, but she fell apart at the Finish Line.
This HAS been the best season of Survivor in a long, long time ... and I wish they could all be this exciting (although I could've done without the Fairplay & the Kathy!) ... but what I'm LOVING is that we're heading into a Final Four without a single "under-the-radar" floater tagging along as a spoiler. Every person in the end of this game deserves to be there. (Yeah, I can't stand Natalie - but hey, she managed to get there!)
CAN'T WAIT FOR SUNDAY! (But then I'll be sad it's over ... *sniff*)
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May 9, 2008 3:52 PM
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Usually the final challenge is a real deal breaker and considering Cirie's ability at challenges, this may be her downfall. If she can get through it, she stands an excellent chance of walking away with the loot. And if she does, those other stupid women are going to say, "Huh? How did THAT happen?" Because they all think they are controlling the game and they aren't. It's Cirie and has been for a long time. She's lousy at challenges but behind the scenes she's a mover and a shaker, she wants someone out, BAM, they're gone. I have never liked her not the first show she was on or on this one but have to hand it to her she's been manipulating the game for weeks and outplaying everyone.
This has been an interesting show but certainly not the best one ever. Best in awhile but it got started off slow with some dumb people playing and it only picked up as they left.
Poor Erik is going to go down in history as Survivor's dumbest player and it will live on because they'll make use of it!
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May 9, 2008 4:01 PM
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This season has been great but not the best season..my predictions, it's going to be Cirie or Amanda.
Aww Jeff, I wish he would explain why Fiji was the worst? I don't think so Jeff..without Fiji we would of never met Ya-man!!
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May 9, 2008 4:45 PM
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The really dumb thing about Erik giving up immunity wasn't the fact that he gave up the necklace. But the fact that he allowed the women to get in his head and badger him for trying to make alliances with each one of them. He was feeling guilty because they were yelling at him for trying to make a deal for the final 3. But Erik should have been smarter and realized that he had immunity so the ladies being upset had nothing to do with him...one of them was still going home because they didnt win. But most of all that 3 out of the 5 members of the jury were sitting on the jury because of what Parv, Amanda, Natalie and Cirie did to them!!! He should have told them "dont talk to me about lying and manipulation or trying to guilt me... when Parv you blindsided Ozzy, Natalie you blindsided Jason and Amanda blindsided Alexis while Cirie manipulated everyone." He should have used that tribal council as a prime oppurtunity to remind the jury of the reason why they are no longer in the game. Which would have been a good move on Erik's part going in to the final four. However, he just wanted to people please and that made him go home.
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May 9, 2008 7:27 PM
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Aww Jeff, I wish he would explain why Fiji was the worst? I don't think so Jeff..without Fiji we would of never met Ya-man!!
Brittlong, I think the reason Jeff considers Fiji a disaster was because of the have/have not concept. That was the season in which one tribe lived in luxury and the other had nothing. The "pampered" tribe had such a clear advantage that the challenges were so lopsided. I've read in a few interviews that Jeff in retrospect believes that concept was ill-conceived.
(I think the concept was dumb, but I didn't think it was a horrible season, myself. My favorite parts were the times Alex, Mookie, Edgardo etc. were mocking Yau-man, only to have their mouths shut quickly when he proved to be a ringer at challenges!)
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May 10, 2008 12:45 AM
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I nevered like Cerie but she has played
a very good game. The best thing about this season is I did not have to like anyone alot. So if they got voted off I
didn't get mad about it. Jeff please do
another all-star, PLEASE.
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May 10, 2008 11:01 AM
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I think Amanda should be the winner she hasn't done anything to anyone except Erik.. Natalie is not a very nice person she is out to make everyone angry.. and she had no right getting angry when Erik took Amanda with him when he won the Challenge and as for Cirie well she can't win a challenge if she tried.. she should of went a long time ago.. Parvati and Amanda are friends so they stick together the other two are out of here
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May 10, 2008 4:34 PM
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ARE YOU KIDDING!!! Cirie has played an awesome game! It is not all about the challenges. I wouldn't mind if Amanda won, but I am hoping it is Cirie! Cirie has been running the game, in my opinion! GO CIRIE!
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May 10, 2008 10:53 PM
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The blind sides this year have made this season great. It's the first season I have ever watched episodes a second time: Ozzy's departure, Jason's departure, Amanda's hidden immunity idol, & Erik's departure all have made the second half of this season unforgettable. I loved Cirie on her first season, & this one. She is real person & seriously likeable! She hasn't gotten where she is on either season by being a flirt or good at challenges. She is a master strategist-almost all the plans have come from her instigating. Natalie, however, is a total bitch & much too sure of herself. As long as Natalie doesn't win, I'm happy. Cirie deserves it most, than Amanda, than Parv.
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May 11, 2008 1:34 AM
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